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As Japan pours billions into defense dreaming of arms-led prosperity, many warn history’s darkest chapters offer a sobering lesson_我的网站

A |     AI摘要      福建出台“十五五”县域重点产业链群高质量发展行动方案，推动产业从单点建链向系统聚群转变。

B |     Editor's Note:
August 15 marked the 81st anniversary of Japan's announcement of its unconditional surrender. Eighty-one years on, Japan, the defeated aggressor in World War II (WWII), has not only failed to conduct a thorough reckoning with its wartime aggression, but has instead intensified its drive to expand military power. In its newly released 2026 Defense White Paper on August 4, Japan says that "defense business not only possesses a high degree of public value by directly contributing to the protection of citizens' lives, but also contributes to Japan's economic growth through ripple effects into the civilian sector."
This line of argument, along with Japan's defense policies in recent years, in fact reflects a form of "military Keynesianism" - the use of military spending as a means to stimulate overall economic development. However, this logic of "trying to boost the economy through military buildup" has faced widespread skepticism inside Japan. Some scholars have also warned that Japan pursued a similar policy during WWII, which led to the expansion of the military-industrial complex (MIC) and, in objective terms, fueled the scale of Japan's war of aggression, bringing profound suffering to the peoples of Asia and the world.

    People take part in a protest march in Tokyo, opposing politicians making ritual offerings to or visiting the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, on August 15, 2026. Photo: cnsphoto
Pursuing a military Keynesian path
Japan's 2026 Defense White Paper, at 598 pages, has set a record as the longest in history. More alarming than its length, however, is the document's first-ever explicit definition of the development of the defense industry as an effective means of promoting "economic growth." 
"The white paper 'stresses that investment in defense benefits the wider economy and people's lives,' according to a Defense Ministry presentation document," reported Reuters on August 4. "That message aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's broader use of strategic state spending in an effort to drive economic growth," Reuters commented. Previously, The Asahi Shimbun warned in an opinion piece that this entanglement of defense buildup with economic policy will, over time, slide into "military Keynesianism."
"Military Keynesianism" refers to the use of military spending as a tool to stimulate overall economic development. Since the Takaichi administration took office, Japan has been expanding its domestic defense market through year-on-year increases in the defense budget, while at the same time opening up international sales channels for defense production by relaxing export controls - thereby systematically pursuing a military Keynesian path.
In fiscal 2026, Japan's defense budget for the first time exceeded 9 trillion yen ($56.5 billion). Its defense-related spending has already reached 2 percent of GDP, according to The Japan Times. This not only means Japan's defense budget has risen for 14 consecutive years, but also indicates that the government is using fiscal stimulus to artificially create a large and relatively stable "arms market." The resulting closed-loop logic is clear: the government increases defense spending to expand procurement; defense companies receive orders and scale up production; and, through industrial-chain spillovers, related industries also expand output.
As Japan's new Defense White Paper says, higher defense expenditures will not only significantly increase orders in the defense industry, but also reinforce the defense production base through measures such as introducing mechanisms to assess corporate efforts and calculate appropriate profits for companies. These measures, the paper claims, are expected to generate economic ripple effects, "as well as technological ripple effects into the civilian sector." 
What is even more alarming is that Japan is systematically removing the institutional barriers to the growth of its defense industry. 
One long-standing challenge in postwar Japan has been the limited size of its domestic defense market and restrictions on arms exports, which have kept defense firms' profits relatively low and prompted some major companies to withdraw from parts of the military supply business, observers pointed out.
In 2022, however, Japan elevated the defense industry to a national strategic priority in its three key security documents, National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program. In 2023, it enacted the Act on Enhancing Defense Production and Technology Bases, allowing the government to sustain and reinforce defense manufacturing through subsidies, capital investment and other measures. And in April this year, the Takaichi administration formally lifted the ban on exports of lethal weapons, fully opening the door for Japan's defense industry to enter global markets.
Together, these moves show that Japan is no longer content with relying on its Self-Defense Forces' limited procurement needs. It seeks to turn itself into a global arms supplier. This will inevitably intensify the regional arms race and seriously destabilize the security landscape in East Asia, warned some experts reached by the Global Times.
Of particular concern is that the focus of Japan's military Keynesianism has shifted from traditional weapons such as guns and artillery, to high-tech fields including artificial intelligence (AI) and drones, with an explicit emphasis on civil-military integration. Japan's new Defense White Paper places special emphasis on AI and unmanned systems, which are expected to become central issues in the year-end revision of its three key security documents.
Widespread criticism and concern
Japan's bid to jolt economic growth through higher military spending amounts to little more than a wishful gamble that "guns for butter" can be turned on its head. But when the fiscal question of "where will the money come from?" collides with public anxiety over "where is people's livelihood headed?", voices from international media outlets to Japanese scholars, lawmakers and ordinary citizens alike, are warning that the narrative of arms-led prosperity is not only unlikely to work, but could also drag Japan's economy into dangerous territory, observers noted.
Japan's fiscal expenditure faces "competing demands on the public purse," "but Takaichi has yet to explain clearly how she would pay for a further expansion without adding pressure on Japan's already stretched public finances," Reuters said on August 4.
In a Japanese-language editorial piece on August 8, The Asahi Shimbun pushed the debate further toward livelihoods, saying that military expansion would place a direct strain on the daily lives of Japanese people. The piece also cited a United Nations study saying that reallocating the same resources to education and healthcare rather than the military could generate more jobs. The International Monetary Fund has also warned that rising defense spending may, in the medium term, increase economic vulnerabilities, including through wider fiscal deficits, it said. 
 Opposition within Japan's academic circles runs equally fierce. Yuko Tanaka, a professor emeritus at Hosei University, argues the Takaichi administration's military buildup policies are driving Japan's economy toward collapse. The continuous depreciation of the yen and climbing government bond yields have rendered its "responsible proactive fiscal policies" unsustainable in the eyes of markets. If military expansion takes precedence over people's livelihoods, Japan's economy will fall into prolonged stagnation and recession, culminating in bankruptcy, Tanaka told the Global Times. 
Strong criticism also echoes across Japan's political arena. House of Representatives member Joji Yamamoto accused the Takaichi administration of doubling defense spending and lifting bans on weapons exports, while shifting healthcare costs onto patients and eroding elderly care systems. If left unchecked, Japan will gradually turn into a nation sustained by the arms trade, seriously violating people's right to subsistence guaranteed by law, Yamamoto told the Global Times. 
A risky gamble

Military Keynesianism is not only unlikely to sustain long-term economic growth in Japan, but also carries hidden security risks. Koji Sonoda, deputy editor at The Asahi Shimbun's Political News Section, recently cautioned that if defense budget expansion, initially justified by a deteriorating security environment, comes instead to serve the goal of economic growth through industrial promotion, the risk grows that spending will lose any effective restraint. 
History has already proven this point. The global economic depression of 1929 triggered the Showa Depression in Japan, pushing the country's economy to the brink of collapse. At the time, rather than pursuing structural reforms, Japan's political and military leadership shifted the national economy onto a wartime footing, using military spending to boost demand and mask unemployment.
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that in 1932, Korekiyo Takahashi, Japan's then Finance Minister, rolled out stimulus policies including yen depreciation and expanded fiscal outlays. Massive military spending paired with public works projects lifted domestic demand and enabled Japan to recover from the recession earlier than many nations. Takahashi became known as "Japan's Keynes."
However, the prosperity driven by fiscal deficits and military-industrial expansion was ultimately a shortsighted fix. Meng pointed out that, first, while wartime demand boosted Japan's heavy chemical and weapons manufacturing sectors to some extent, most military output was removed from the social reproduction cycle and constituted sheer waste. Second, heavy chemical industries relied heavily on resources such as oil, which Japan lacked domestically. This created a vicious cycle: military demand expanded heavy industrial capacity; that expansion increased Japan's dependence on overseas resources and markets; rising resource needs drove further military expansion to secure supply chains; and that expansion in turn required even more defense spending, further militarizing the economy. Finally, a coalition of interest formed among heavy industrial capitalists, emerging zaibatsu and the military. Military adventurism was no longer driven solely by the armed forces, but was backed by industrial and financial power.
    People hold placards reading "No war" and "Stop constitutional revision, military expansion" during the Grand Constitution Rally 2026 to mark Constitution Memorial Day in Tokyo on May 3, 2026. Photo: vcgOnce the narrative that "military demand brings prosperity" gained mainstream acceptance, cutting military spending became a political taboo. Takahashi later sought to rein in military budgets and was assassinated in the February 26 Incident of 1936. His successor as finance minister, Eiichi Baba, treated military expansion as a long-term necessity. After the Lugou Bridge Incident in 1937, Japan enacted the National Mobilization Law in 1938, ushering in a full wartime system. "History shows the defense industry is never a silver bullet for economic prosperity," Meng said. Growth driven by arms expansion only leads to economic distortion, depletion of national strength and eventual self-destruction, he said. 
Currently, many Japanese citizens have recognized the dangers of the Takaichi administration's policies and taken to the streets to protest. 
Kazuo Adachi, a sexagenarian, told the Global Times in Japan that behind the administration's claim that the defense industry fuels growth lies the profit motive of the military-industrial complex. From policy deregulation launched under the Abe administration to accelerated implementation under the Takaichi administration, the path of military expansion catering to arms capital is akin to poison, fraught with alarming risks.
Marin Toyosu, a member of Japan's Generation Z, said the Takaichi administration's aggressive push for war preparedness essentially hides a self-serving agenda under the slogan of a "virtuous cycle between security and the economy." It abandons vulnerable groups to benefit a small circle of arms capitalists and represents an administration bent on stoking conflict. 
"This military expansion agenda harms Japanese citizens and endangers people across the world," she noted.
Tatara Satoshi, an anti-war activist, pointed out that the Takaichi administration hypes up the "China threat" to justify military buildup while pushing the flawed argument that the defense industry can boost the economy. 
This does not reflect the genuine aspirations of Japanese society or ordinary citizens. "Japanese people do not want war with China. They should unite to firmly oppose efforts to advance military expansion by stoking tensions and overstating supposed economic benefits," he said.
Global Times
。方案锚定“555X”产业集群，分类培育四类县域，强化跨区域协作与创新驱动，构筑县域竞争新优势。         《福建省“十五五”县域重点产业链群高质量发展行动方案》出台     “链群”上发力，构筑县域竞争新优势     东南网8月24日讯（福建日报记者 林霞）日前，《福建省“十五五”县域重点产业链群高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》）出台，明确总体要求、发展方向、重点任务。    “十四五”时期，福建把推进县域重点产业链发展作为壮大县域经济的战略之举、长远之策，走出具有自身鲜明特色的发展道路。目前，全省164条县域重点产业链规上工业产值占规上工业总产值比重超50％，15个县域规上工业营业收入超千亿元，7个县市入选全国综合实力百强。    “十五五”启幕，如何发展各具特色的县域经济？记者采访了参与规划编制、讨论和提出建议的相关负责人、专家等，解读《行动方案》里的重要信息。    从“链”迈向“链群”     从2023年率先在全国布局县域重点产业链，到连续三年发布《福建省县域重点产业链发展白皮书》，此次出台的《行动方案》，深度展望福建县域重点产业链群高质量发展蓝图。    《行动方案》提出，要围绕服务“555X”产业集群建设，引导各县域因地制宜培育壮大1～2条重点产业链，产业基础优势明显的发展3～4条，加快延链补链强链，深化“四链”融合，强化“企业家＋科学家＋投资人”三方联动，分类推动四类县域发展。    “这标志着福建县域产业发展从‘单点建链、县域单兵突破’迈向‘系统聚群、全省生态协同’。

C | ”赛迪顾问副总裁李珂谈到四个方面的显著变化，一是从“补链扩量”走向“强链提质”，发展重心转向产业链价值链攀升；二是从“各自为战”走向“全省协同”，实现要素跨区域流动、资源跨县域整合；三是从“项目驱动”走向“生态培育”，新阶段立足战略、平台、政策、服务四维体系；四是从“单一增长”走向“多元发展”，实现产业与县域治理、城乡建设深度绑定。    《行动方案》将县域分为产业引领型、区域支柱型、培育提升型、融合成长型四类。李珂认为，“555X”产业集群是福建产业发展的顶层主干，这四类县域链群分级培育体系，则是产业落地的基层载体。“其中，产业引领型县域承接研发创新、总部经济，打造集群核心承载地；区域支柱型县域聚焦关键配套、中端制造，成为产业中坚力量；培育提升型县域深耕细分赛道，补齐产业链短板；融合成长型县域立足特色资源，推进农工、文旅、数实融合。

D | ”     值得关注的是，全省83个县域中，有28个被划为“融合成长型”。这类县域工业基础薄弱，如何将“特色资源”升级为“链群经济”？中国社会科学院工业经济研究所研究员、教授、博士生导师陈耀认为，融合成长型县域通过“强二产带一产促三产”可实现“有根的产业化”，决定性环节在二产的全链增值，走“特色资源—标准—加工—品牌—文旅服务”链群发展之路。    福建一些因地制宜的实践样本令陈耀印象深刻。如，永安以102万亩竹林打底，打通了从竹林流转、采伐运输到加工销售的全链条；政和统筹推进“三茶”高质量发展，75％以上农户从事种茶及相关产业；沙县小吃年产值超550亿元，带动就业30万人，把“风景和口味”变成可复制的产业链与服务业链。“要确保带动性强的龙头或链主扎根，搭建‘一链一公共服务平台’，建立一二三产现金流闭环，其中一产保资源、二产保就业税收、三产保品牌与文旅消费，避免‘有生态无产值’。”陈耀说。    锚定“555X”产业集群     福建“555X”产业集群，为“十五五”县域链群精准锚定发展坐标。    如，聚焦先进装备制造万亿级产业链群，以闽侯、罗源、湖里等县域为重点，推动产业高端化、智能化、成套化升级。其中，闽侯加快建设纯电动车车型等项目，南安主攻工业母机方向，集美围绕新能源客车、重卡及专用车等方向……各地错位发展、分类施策。    “十五五”启幕，各地在有关部署下一锤一锤敲、一项一项推，让“好规划”落地生根、开花结果。

E | 看闽侯，总投资10亿元的泰德能源科技智能发电设备生产基地项目已启动建设，还计划引入英国品牌发动机制造商等上游配套企业；看南安，南翼高端装备产业园项目一期工程正全速推进建设，一期投产后预计年产15台直径10米级的盾构机；看集美，速豹科技不仅完成5亿元C轮融资，而且其专为欧洲市场研发的纯电动重卡正式批量投产并完成首批交付。    当各地招商引资再掀新热潮，陈耀特别谈到，要继续建立有效的机制，引导各县域抱好“金娃娃”。“首先，要做省级链谱与承载县域清单，相邻县招商目录互锁。其次，落实《福建省促进公平竞争条例》，用制度压住‘捡到篮里都是菜’。最后，‘链长＋副链长’专班要绑定三件事——季度更新‘链图＋配套缺口＋招商目标企业’、跨区域联合尽调与利益分成、省供需平台定期发布技术攻关和产能合作清单等。”     眼下，以低空经济、人工智能与机器人等为代表的新兴产业、未来产业是福建县域重点产业链群的关键词。

F | 如何优化金融资源配置，精准支持新兴产业成长？“可以考虑摈弃‘重抵押＋短贷’旧框架，改分层供给。

G | ”陈耀建议，财政和国资基金扛示范基建与早期股权，银行信贷服务成熟运营主体，民间资本进有稳定收益的经营性项目；风控变量加入“场景清单真实性、专利及算法确权、订单＋数据流、基金跟投比例”，用“产业基金跟投＋知识产权质押＋供应链应收融资”替代纯不动产抵押；低空基建政企收益分配与资产确权先出标准再放贷。

H |     构建高质量发展新生态     围绕推动“十五五”目标任务落实落地，《行动方案》提出六项重点任务，包括实施产业链群跨区域协作行动、实施链群提升行动、实施产业创新行动等。    “大力推进关键核心技术攻关”“推动数字技术与县域重点产业链群深度融合”“加快绿色技术在县域企业普及应用”……《行动方案》反复强调要坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向。    对此，李珂表示，要从“抓项目”转向“建生态”。以“四链深度融合＋三方联动”为核心，打通创新资源下沉县域的通道。建立企业家定义技术需求、科学家组织攻关、投资人判断转化价值的闭环机制，完善县域创新基础设施，推动孵化、中试、产业化全链条贯通，让创新成果在县域内完成从实验室到生产线的“最后一公里”。

I |     加强科技自主创新，“硬核”科技人才是关键。

J | 陈耀指出，要按照“借脑＋场景＋基金”的模式破解难题。

K | “第一，企业出题、科研解题。福建省内就有晋江‘企业家＋科学家’机制、莆田‘莆籍科技委员会’引京莆专家回乡等；第二，场景换产业。福州闽侯用政务巡检场景引低空经济头部企业并设立5亿元低空基金，龙岩上杭‘券商＋基金＋产业’攒26只基金超百亿元；第三，人才可以借用‘周末院士’、飞地实验室、链主中试基地等模式，比如恒申全球研发中心、嘉庚创新实验室模式。”     面对全球产业链重构与国内统一大市场建设的双重命题，《行动方案》还提出推动跨区域配套合作，深化山海产业链群协作，促进链群开放合作，支持加快全球化布局等。    李珂特别提到，要将“县域思维”转向“全国视野、全球坐标”。对内嵌入长三角、粤港澳分工，推动专精特新企业进入国内龙头供应链与重大工程配套；对外依托RCEP深耕东盟、中东，引导代工贴牌向自主品牌出海、跨境电商转型，适配碳关税等规则，让福建县域产业在全国有位置、在全球有声音。

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